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Prediction for CME (2021-10-25T05:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-25T05:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18057/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and B3.7 flare from AR 12887 (near S28E38) taking place around 2021-10-25T03:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is faintly visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a faint halo in a few frames of STEREO A COR2 difference imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-29T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18056/1
Model Inputs:
2021-10-25T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-38.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=369.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2021-10-25T14:58Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-10-29T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-10-27T15:52Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-10-28T09:42Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-10-28T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211025_145800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 80.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-10-25T17:12Z

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